BitConcepts Research Program record as of October 11, 2026

Glossa-Lab · Indus decipherment research

The Indus script, tested claim by claim.

Status: not deciphered. The Indus script remains undeciphered. This program holds a well-audited, unproven hypothesis — and publishes the evidence for and against it at the same size.

Glossa-Lab tests proposed readings of the Indus sign system the way a result earns trust anywhere else: every study is specified before it runs, frozen before data is touched, and closed with a verdict — including the verdicts that go against the program.

Falsified and quarantined: an earlier statistical-association (SA) method for assigning readings failed the program's own held-out test — 0.000 accuracy, 0 of 115 — and was withdrawn. No current claim rests on it; 44 anchors still await independent, non-SA validation.
Steatite Indus seal carved with a zebu bull beneath a row of Indus signs
A steatite Indus seal: animal motif below, a sequence of signs above. Seals and tablets like this one are the corpus the program's claims are built from — and tested against.

287

Sign-value anchors

166 HIGH 5 MED 3 LOW 113 CANDIDATE

94

Strict-core readings

Readings supported without the falsified SA method — the part of the hypothesis that stands on independent evidence alone.

73.68%

Strict corpus coverage

5,159 of 7,002 tokens in the strict corpus layer are covered by those 94 readings.

0 / 115

Falsified method, held-out test

The SA method's score on data it had never seen. It was quarantined on this result, and every claim that depended on it was re-based or dropped.

Verdict board

Current evidentiary status of selected results, after the Spec 026 framework audit and its reruns (October 2026).

Every closed study ends in one of four verdicts — SUPPORTED, INCONCLUSIVE, CONTRADICTED, or INVALID — and negative verdicts are published with the same prominence as positive ones. Two findings below sit outside the four-verdict scale and are labelled as what they are.

No findings carry this verdict.

Registered predictions

PRED-2026 series · registered April 23, 2026 · criteria frozen in advance

Before any new corpus is examined, the program registers what its hypothesis predicts that corpus will show. The test can only be run on a qualifying, fully independent corpus — one the hypothesis was not built from.

PRED-2026-001

Terminal signs close inscriptions at the predicted rate

TERMINAL end_rate ≥ 0.45

PENDING

PRED-2026-002

Initial signs open inscriptions at the predicted rate

INITIAL start_rate ≥ 0.45

PENDING

PRED-2026-003

The 3-slot template holds in new material

3-slot template ≥ 70% in a newly acquired multi-site dataset

PENDING

Pending means unplayed — not lost, not won. No qualifying fully independent corpus has been obtained yet, so none of the three tests has run. Data requests to concordance holders are outstanding; acquiring that corpus is the single event these predictions are waiting on.

The Spec 026 framework audit

116 prior items re-examined under criteria frozen before classification · October 11, 2026

In October 2026 the program turned its own method on its entire back catalogue — every study from Specs 001–025 and Phases 52–141 — and re-graded each item's evidentiary status. Original records were never rewritten; changed assessments were appended as new records alongside them.

How the 116 items classified

Counts of items per class; the five classes sum to the full 116-item register.

75 of 116

items now carry a changed evidentiary status in appended historical assessments — upgrades and demotions alike, including results the program had previously reported in its own favour.

Reruns 383–386

executed under pre-declared corrections. Four foundational results (Phases 116, 125, 127, 131) were replayed in a clean environment and reproduced exactly.

The audit caught itself. One of the audit's own rerun methods failed its independence control — it reported an effect even where none existed. That run was declared INVALID and its result discarded, rather than reported.

Latest research

Articles are added here when a significant finding is confirmed — at most one per day.

October 11, 2026 · BitConcepts Research

We audited our entire research program. 75 results changed status.

Basis: Spec 026 framework transfer, impact register, and reruns 383–386, merged on main bf85ff31 (PRs #138–#146). Release: Zenodo v4.10.0, published October 11, 2026 — 10.5281/zenodo.23298334.

Read the full article ↓Close article ↑

Every research program accumulates results it likes too much to re-examine. This week we did the opposite on purpose: we adopted a stricter study framework — claims with stable IDs and named falsifiers, evidence counted by origin rather than by report, controls that must be able to fail, and verdicts that include CONTRADICTED and INVALID alongside SUPPORTED — and then we applied it retroactively to everything we have published in this program. 116 prior items (Specs 001–025, Phases 52–141) were classified under criteria that were frozen before anyone looked at which items the criteria would hit. Eight items were rerun under pre-declared corrections. The outcome: 75 of 116 items carry a changed evidentiary status. The originals were not edited. Each change is an appended historical assessment, so the record shows what we believed, when, and what replaced it.

What fell

  • The keyed-transcription pilot is now CONTRADICTED, not merely stopped. Rescoring from the raw records gives two-pass agreement 0.20 with a confidence interval of [0.10, 0.32] against a pre-registered floor of 0.80. That is not a near miss, and the dataset stays unpublished. A retry needs human expert transcription — no third attempt with AI coders is a reopening path.
  • The “site dialects” result on the Holdat layer is CONTRADICTED at a declared margin. The bounded claim's interval, [0.059, 0.078], sits entirely below the pre-declared practical margin of 0.10, converging with the original test: on this layer, site differences are a preservation artifact.
  • Three test batteries and the blind affiliation rounds are INVALID — worse than null. Their instruments could not discriminate the hypothesis from grammar-free controls (in one case a random generator won the blind test outright). We have stopped describing these as “rejected at calibration.” They never measured anything.
  • The motif-coding pilots soften to INCONCLUSIVE. The honest surprise ran the other way: Phase-134's agreement interval [0.77, 0.91] reaches its gate, so the story we told at the time — “missed by one object” — was more confident than the data supports. The motif arm stays closed, but for the recorded reason (the AI instrument is unstable on worn plates), not a borrowed certainty. The audit also established structurally that all AI pilot coding was a single evidence origin group: agreement between two passes of one model family is consistency, not independent corroboration.

What stood

  • Terminal-class × object type (seals vs tablets, Mantel-Haenszel OR 2.384, CI 1.847–3.077) was untouched by the reruns and remains SUPPORTED, stable under leave-one-site-out.
  • Site repertoire differences on the ICIT-lineage layer stand (interval [0.182, 0.210]), and the preservation-controlled follow-up (G1) stands at its declared margin (interval [0.184, 0.210]) — with its named weakness intact: chronology is not controlled, and we say so wherever the result appears.
  • Four foundational results replayed exactly in a disposable environment (Phases 116, 125, 127, 131), including the finding that 93.9% of the disagreement between published corpora remains unexplained.

The part we are proudest of

One of the audit's own rerun methods failed its independence control — its confidence interval excluded zero even at a true effect of zero — and was declared INVALID under the framework's rules, then replaced with a corrected method whose results are the ones reported above. A framework that cannot catch its own side cheating is decoration. Ours caught one, in its first week.

What this does not change

The script is not deciphered, and nothing here moves that line. The strict core remains 94 readings; the 287-anchor set is byte-identical before and after the audit; PRED-2026 remains pending, waiting for an independent corpus. What changed is the quality of the ground the next studies stand on — and the program's newest study, on population movement, culture, and language (Spec 027, frozen today), is the first to be built entirely under the new rules.

Open fronts

What is actually in motion, and what each line of work is waiting on.

Spec 027 — movement, culture, language adjudicated & frozen October 11, 2026

● Frozen

Design adjudicated

Scope, governing sign list, and corpus rules settled and frozen before any data is touched.

● In progress

Stage 0 — gazetteer & chronology spine

Building the settlement gazetteer and chronology spine the study's site-period work stands on.

● Next

Stage 1 — the Q2 gate test

Is regional sign variation real after preservation and object-type controls — or an artefact? A null result closes the repertoire-geography line by design, and counts as a successful outcome.

○ Conditional

Stage 2 — separately frozen

Further questions proceed only if the gate test passes, under their own freeze.

Five questions registered as not-yet-testable

Spec 027 names five related questions it cannot yet honestly run, each with its exact data blocker recorded — including a substrate test that requires at least two human etymologists coding blind. They stay on the register, unrun, until the blocker clears.

Independent corpus acquisition

Concordance and data requests to scholarly holders are outstanding. A qualifying fully independent corpus is what the PRED-2026 predictions — and the program's strongest possible test — are waiting on.

Corpus of Indus Inscriptions (CISI)

Digital Volumes 1 and 2 are complete in hand. Volumes 3.1–3.3 exist only in print; a portion copy of Vol. 3.1, “Basic data” (pp. 413–443), has been requested through interlibrary loan.

The human-expert route

A paid calibration set (30 objects, human-derived references) and a coder crosswalk package are ready; first-wave scholarly outreach was sent October 10, 2026, and replies are awaited. Any future transcription or motif coding will be human-coded under frozen gates — the pilot work showed AI coders cannot supply independent judgment.

Archived releases

Zenodo · every deposit hash-gated against the repository sources before release

Concept DOI for the archive as a whole: 10.5281/zenodo.20379070 — it always resolves to the latest version. Repository history note: the git history was rewritten twice in October 2026 to remove improperly stored material; a GitHub Support garbage-collection ticket for the second rewrite is pending.

Study papers & key links

The program's own outputs, and the scholarly sources its claims stand on.

How a claim earns its verdict

Spec-kit specification discipline + AEE (applied epistemic engineering) scoring

STEP 1

Specify before running

Every study is written as a specification — question, data, method, and the result that would count against it — before it runs.

STEP 2

Score the design

The design is scored for epistemic quality under AEE: are the claims atomic, the controls real, the falsifiers genuine?

STEP 3

Freeze before data

Criteria, thresholds, and margins are frozen before the data is touched. Nothing is tuned after the answer is visible.

STEP 4

Close with a verdict

SUPPORTED, INCONCLUSIVE, CONTRADICTED, or INVALID — published either way, at the same prominence.

Indus unicorn seal beside its modern impression, showing the carved seal and the raised image it prints
A “unicorn” seal and its impression. Most Indus inscriptions are only a handful of signs long, on objects like these — which is why every claim here is statistical and structural, and why the program grades evidence instead of announcing readings.

What the program is not claiming: that any sign has a proven reading, that a Harappan language has been identified, or that the hypothesis is a decipherment. The movement research behind Spec 027 is explicit on the last point — no evidence identifies the Harappan language(s).

What it is claiming: a set of structural results about how the sign system behaves — which sign classes open and close inscriptions, how repertoires differ by site and object type, and where published corpora disagree — each graded above, with its confounders named.