PRED-2026-001
Terminal signs close inscriptions at the predicted rate
TERMINAL end_rate ≥ 0.45
PENDINGGlossa-Lab · Indus decipherment research
Status: not deciphered. The Indus script remains undeciphered. This program holds a well-audited, unproven hypothesis — and publishes the evidence for and against it at the same size.
Glossa-Lab tests proposed readings of the Indus sign system the way a result earns trust anywhere else: every study is specified before it runs, frozen before data is touched, and closed with a verdict — including the verdicts that go against the program.
287
Sign-value anchors
94
Strict-core readings
Readings supported without the falsified SA method — the part of the hypothesis that stands on independent evidence alone.
73.68%
Strict corpus coverage
5,159 of 7,002 tokens in the strict corpus layer are covered by those 94 readings.
0 / 115
Falsified method, held-out test
The SA method's score on data it had never seen. It was quarantined on this result, and every claim that depended on it was re-based or dropped.
Current evidentiary status of selected results, after the Spec 026 framework audit and its reruns (October 2026).
Every closed study ends in one of four verdicts — SUPPORTED, INCONCLUSIVE, CONTRADICTED, or INVALID — and negative verdicts are published with the same prominence as positive ones. Two findings below sit outside the four-verdict scale and are labelled as what they are.
No findings carry this verdict.
PRED-2026 series · registered April 23, 2026 · criteria frozen in advance
Before any new corpus is examined, the program registers what its hypothesis predicts that corpus will show. The test can only be run on a qualifying, fully independent corpus — one the hypothesis was not built from.
PRED-2026-001
TERMINAL end_rate ≥ 0.45
PENDINGPRED-2026-002
INITIAL start_rate ≥ 0.45
PENDINGPRED-2026-003
3-slot template ≥ 70% in a newly acquired multi-site dataset
PENDINGPending means unplayed — not lost, not won. No qualifying fully independent corpus has been obtained yet, so none of the three tests has run. Data requests to concordance holders are outstanding; acquiring that corpus is the single event these predictions are waiting on.
116 prior items re-examined under criteria frozen before classification · October 11, 2026
In October 2026 the program turned its own method on its entire back catalogue — every study from Specs 001–025 and Phases 52–141 — and re-graded each item's evidentiary status. Original records were never rewritten; changed assessments were appended as new records alongside them.
Counts of items per class; the five classes sum to the full 116-item register.
items now carry a changed evidentiary status in appended historical assessments — upgrades and demotions alike, including results the program had previously reported in its own favour.
executed under pre-declared corrections. Four foundational results (Phases 116, 125, 127, 131) were replayed in a clean environment and reproduced exactly.
Articles are added here when a significant finding is confirmed — at most one per day.
October 11, 2026 · BitConcepts Research
We audited our entire research program. 75 results changed status.
Basis: Spec 026 framework transfer, impact register, and reruns 383–386, merged on main bf85ff31 (PRs #138–#146). Release: Zenodo v4.10.0, published October 11, 2026 — 10.5281/zenodo.23298334.
Read the full article ↓Close article ↑Every research program accumulates results it likes too much to re-examine. This week we did the opposite on purpose: we adopted a stricter study framework — claims with stable IDs and named falsifiers, evidence counted by origin rather than by report, controls that must be able to fail, and verdicts that include CONTRADICTED and INVALID alongside SUPPORTED — and then we applied it retroactively to everything we have published in this program. 116 prior items (Specs 001–025, Phases 52–141) were classified under criteria that were frozen before anyone looked at which items the criteria would hit. Eight items were rerun under pre-declared corrections. The outcome: 75 of 116 items carry a changed evidentiary status. The originals were not edited. Each change is an appended historical assessment, so the record shows what we believed, when, and what replaced it.
One of the audit's own rerun methods failed its independence control — its confidence interval excluded zero even at a true effect of zero — and was declared INVALID under the framework's rules, then replaced with a corrected method whose results are the ones reported above. A framework that cannot catch its own side cheating is decoration. Ours caught one, in its first week.
The script is not deciphered, and nothing here moves that line. The strict core remains 94 readings; the 287-anchor set is byte-identical before and after the audit; PRED-2026 remains pending, waiting for an independent corpus. What changed is the quality of the ground the next studies stand on — and the program's newest study, on population movement, culture, and language (Spec 027, frozen today), is the first to be built entirely under the new rules.
Links: Spec 026 record · Movement study · Zenodo archive
What is actually in motion, and what each line of work is waiting on.
● Frozen
Scope, governing sign list, and corpus rules settled and frozen before any data is touched.
● In progress
Building the settlement gazetteer and chronology spine the study's site-period work stands on.
● Next
Is regional sign variation real after preservation and object-type controls — or an artefact? A null result closes the repertoire-geography line by design, and counts as a successful outcome.
○ Conditional
Further questions proceed only if the gate test passes, under their own freeze.
Spec 027 names five related questions it cannot yet honestly run, each with its exact data blocker recorded — including a substrate test that requires at least two human etymologists coding blind. They stay on the register, unrun, until the blocker clears.
Concordance and data requests to scholarly holders are outstanding. A qualifying fully independent corpus is what the PRED-2026 predictions — and the program's strongest possible test — are waiting on.
Digital Volumes 1 and 2 are complete in hand. Volumes 3.1–3.3 exist only in print; a portion copy of Vol. 3.1, “Basic data” (pp. 413–443), has been requested through interlibrary loan.
A paid calibration set (30 objects, human-derived references) and a coder crosswalk package are ready; first-wave scholarly outreach was sent October 10, 2026, and replies are awaited. Any future transcription or motif coding will be human-coded under frozen gates — the pilot work showed AI coders cannot supply independent judgment.
Zenodo · every deposit hash-gated against the repository sources before release
Concept DOI for the archive as a whole: 10.5281/zenodo.20379070 — it always resolves to the latest version. Repository history note: the git history was rewritten twice in October 2026 to remove improperly stored material; a GitHub Support garbage-collection ticket for the second rewrite is pending.
The program's own outputs, and the scholarly sources its claims stand on.
Published by this program; release deposits are hash-gated against the repository sources.
Code, specs, phase reports, ledgers.
Concept DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20379070 — always resolves to the latest version. Latest release: v4.10.0, 10.5281/zenodo.23298334 — Spec 026 framework + rerun record, published October 11, 2026. Individual release DOIs v4.1.0–v4.10.0 are listed under Archived releases.
The program's project record on the Open Science Framework.
The movement study — research input to Spec 027.
Framework transfer, impact register, and historical assessments behind the October 2026 audit.
The registered predictions, with their criteria frozen in advance.
External scholarship the program's corpora, chronology, and context rest on.
The M77 sign numbering the anchor program uses.
Formation of South/Central Asian populations; steppe ancestry timing.
The single Rakhigarhi genome.
Isotope evidence for urban migration at Harappa/Farmana.
Curated ancient-genome dataset the program's genetic comparisons draw on.
Framework for working with published ancient DNA data.
Radiocarbon platform for archaeological chronology.
Language classification/geography for attested languages only.
Spec-kit specification discipline + AEE (applied epistemic engineering) scoring
Every study is written as a specification — question, data, method, and the result that would count against it — before it runs.
The design is scored for epistemic quality under AEE: are the claims atomic, the controls real, the falsifiers genuine?
Criteria, thresholds, and margins are frozen before the data is touched. Nothing is tuned after the answer is visible.
SUPPORTED, INCONCLUSIVE, CONTRADICTED, or INVALID — published either way, at the same prominence.
What the program is not claiming: that any sign has a proven reading, that a Harappan language has been identified, or that the hypothesis is a decipherment. The movement research behind Spec 027 is explicit on the last point — no evidence identifies the Harappan language(s).
What it is claiming: a set of structural results about how the sign system behaves — which sign classes open and close inscriptions, how repertoires differ by site and object type, and where published corpora disagree — each graded above, with its confounders named.